Where Will America's Energy Come From in 2035?

by John Hill

A couple of weeks ago I summarized some of the findings of BP’s Energy Outlook, which projected the production and consumption of energy, by type, from the present to 2030. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has done the same thing, only with considerably greater detail, in its 2011 Annual Energy Outlook.  Not only does last year’s Outlook predict energy production and consumption for the U.S. out to 2035, detailed projections can also be created for a variety of energy-related topics, including petroleum and natural gas production, electricity generation, vehicle fuel economy, and even commercial aircraft inventories

Here are some of their key findings: 

• No matter how you slice it, energy consumption in the United States is going to increase.  Even under the most austere scenarios, energy consumption still increases 12.2 percent, and could go as high as 29.4 percent if long-term, strong economic growth manifests itself.

• Traditional sources of energy such as coal, natural gas, and liquid fuels are expected to grow in output anywhere from 13 percent to 19 percent apiece.  Even nuclear power, which took a black eye in 2011 from the Fukushima disaster, is anticipated to increase at least 3 percent, with a 9.5 percent increase being more likely.  By 2035, 89 percent of the nation’s energy is still expected to come from these traditional sources.

• The sources of energy with the highest growth rates will be from biomass, such as wood and wood waste, and other sources of renewable energy, including power from wind, solar cells, and landfill gases.  On average, energy from biomass is expected to more than double (109 percent growth), while energy from the aforementioned other sources could increase 147 percent.  

• As other forecasts have predicted, though, the contribution of these alternative energy sources will contribute, at best, only 11 percent of the power we need in 2035, with a baseline of less than 8 percent being more likely.    

• Demand for liquid fuels, particularly gasoline, will almost certainly continue to increase, no matter whether the price of a barrel of oil is $50 or $200.  The only way this might not happen is if federal CAFE standards rapidly increase during the latter half of this decade.